Using epidemiological evidence to forecast population need for early treatment programmes in mental health: a generalisable Bayesian prediction methodology applied to and validated for first-episode psychosis in England

British Journal of Psychiatry

Fecha de publicación: 8 de marzo de 2021


Autores: Keltie McDonald, Tao Ding, Hannah Ker, Thandiwe Rebecca Dliwayo, David P.J. Osborn, Pia Wohland,Jeremy W. Coid, Paul French, Peter B. Jones, Gianluca Baio andJ ames B. Kirkbride

Background: Mental health policy makers require evidence-based information to optimise effective care provision based on local need, but tools are unavailable. Aims: To develop and validate a population-level prediction model for need for early intervention in psychosis (EIP) care for first-episode psychosis (FEP) in England up to 2025, based on epidemiological evidence and demographic projections.

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